SP500 Futures Trading Plan for 4/15/24
Recap: Price failed to get above resistance Friday at 5222 before more selling set in. There was a brief bounce at support at 5182-85 which failed to find any continuation and once this level gave we saw an additional 30ish points down. This was a solid short, but I’m traveling so no trades for me.
Balance/Trend: So far this month we’ve seen price break out of the steepest trend channel (in white), backtest and reject it, and move firmly inside of the more moderate rising trend channel in yellow which dates back to 2022. Clearly price is beginning to pull back some and I’ve drawn the red structure in to show how this is beginning to develop.
Analysis: We’re now seeing some of the deepest selling since October after higher than expected inflation and strong jobs numbers dashed hopes of a Fed rate cut in June. The US economy has been resilient and very strong despite high rates, and in fact inflation continues to come down in many areas as the breadth of inflation continues to decline (across subsectors). Seasonal cycles would suggest that there’s still further upside this month and I’d also add that since all time highs were set recently in the extended hours, which often will indicate further near-term upside. Bulls can get back on track for the month if they can first recover the core supports for this week, or at the very least keep price within the pink channel. If price begins to trade below the pink channel though, there may be further downside ahead.
Detailed Trading Plan & Charts