SP500 Futures Trading Plan for 4/18/24
Recap: We’ve been tracking the 5116 level for nearly two months now and yesterday’s reaction fortified this as a solid resistance level to look for a trade. I said in the plan that I would use the entry method described in the trade I took yesterday for entering short here, and I review that below in the trade review video. I entered short and when I got this signal and since the next level was far away, I captured profits at yesterday’s POCs at 5101 and left a trailer that was dragged lower and then taken out profitably as the market rose again.
Also from the plan: “The gap was very wide, 5062-5116, and this should get filled if price plunges back [below 5084]. Below the gap, there’s also a spike…at 5050. For longs, options include a move to 5050 and recovery of 5062, or to trade either of these levels solo with a strong entry candle.” Having already had a good trade I skipped these, but will review all of this as well in the trade review linked below. We are now one time framing lower on the daily for four days in a row and working on the third straight week of one time framing lower.
Balance/Trend: Bears continue to gain momentum and cut through supports as the market moves lower through the yellow and now the green rising trend channels. Initially this pullback was easy to outline with the red structure, but the move is now sharply lower and I’m waiting to see how the rest of the week plays out to find an appropriate channel.
Analysis: Coming into the week, I wrote that the chance to repair poor market structure was upon us and that this could result in a move down to 5062. After two months of a slow grind higher, bears finally seized on that opportunity today before bulls appeared at precisely the location where they were active before. Though bulls remain in control over the multiyear period, clearly bears have taken near term control and will now want to break the price lower from the spike to keep momentum going.
Trade Review, Detailed Trading Plan, Charts