SP500 Futures Trading Plan for 4/24/24
Recap: In the planning for today I said that bulls needed to hold core supports for further upside and that the backtest to the red structure at 5103 was the next up. In the after hours session, there was a test to the 5038-41 zone which held and the market was able to rally all the way to the red structure today. Unfortunately I don’t trade in the after hours market and so I missed this move. I wrote in the plan that breakouts from 5103 were a possibility and we ended up consolidating around that level for several hours before moving through it. I tried this trade and held it for hours, but it went nowhere and I was able to escape at breakeven.
Balance/Trend: Bulls needed to get price back into the flag or pullback channel in red, and they were able to do that today and to defend it on tests late in the session. This keeps the market trending down in the near term, but at a more moderate pace relative to the pink channel. Price is now near the intersection of various trend channels and they form a large cluster of supports just below.
Analysis: Bulls have been able to put in a 150-point rally off of the Thursday lows and have begun to take back some of the bearish momentum that’s developed in recent weeks. With the market now trading back inside of the red flag/channel, bulls will face their next test at the core resistances for this week. There was quite a bit of bearish activity there and this is going to be an important breakout spot to watch to gauge the strength of this recovery. With earnings season underway and PCE reported later this week, we should get some clues as to whether or not this was a brief pullback or the start of a new leg down.
Detailed Trading Plan & Charts