SP500 Futures Trading Plan for 4/26/24
Recap: I wrote in the plan that “...supports at 5024 and 5035 are below us and will be important levels to hold for any further upside. An option is the test of 5024 and recovery of 5035.” I entered this right at 5037, but with the next level just four points above and the one after that quite a ways away, I opted to take my standardized eight points and derisk according to the methodology. My runner got taken when the market pulled back to retest 5035, which is quite unfortunate as these supports marked the lows of the day and bulls turned in a big rally which filled the gap up to 5082 and then tried to get back into the red channel again at 5087. In the video this weekend, I will discuss this trade and review the strategy around trading at core levels since they’ve provided some fantastic trades this week with huge continuation.
Balance/Trend: The macro trends (medium and long term) have been clear and pointing up, but the short-term action has been a bit confusing as price flirts with various short-term and long-term trend channels. For the first half of April, price pulled back in the clearly defined red channel, but then broke out lower and has been in and out of these two channels ever since. All of this week’s trade has been contained within the lower portion of last week’s range and this communicates relative balance despite big intraday swings.
Analysis: Yields hit fresh highs today as inflation concerns continue to swirl, and in spite the GDP figure showing an economic slowdown. With the after-hours rally, we’re now trading at a critical spot and I discuss it at length in the plan below. Bulls need to hold price above both the green channel and red channel support line to keep this rally going.
Detailed Trading Plan & Charts