SP500 Futures Trading Plan for 4/29/24
Recap: I wrote in the plan that “These are now an important pivot to watch at 5119-23, and if bulls can hold that, we may finally see the push back above 5130. I would watch these pivots as supports to hold and seek to enter on an entry candle.” Bulls turned in an entry candle and I got long just over this pivot. With the next target a distance ~30 points away, I captured profits in accordance with my risk management methodology and closed an extra contract with the standardized target. I left a runner open for this trade and it was taken out to add additional profit to this trade when the move higher failed to materialize. The stricter risk parameters that I put in place can sometimes limit the upside, but should help with profit consistency. I review this trade and several others in this week’s video.
Balance/Trend: Though this was an inside week, it was also the first time this month that bulls were able to close out a green week. In doing so, bulls also recovered the red channel that marks the April pullback or flag that the market has been in. The longer term trends are pointing higher.
Analysis: Bulls needed to recover support from the red channel this past week to get back on track and, despite some back and forth, were able to close the week well within it. This is a near-term win for them, but until they’re able to break the market out from this structure, bears remain in control of April trade. There are clearly growing concerns around inflation which would indicate a higher for long rate regime, and that’s put the market under quite a bit of bearish pressure. However, that momentum has slowed quite a bit while giving the RSI a chance to reset following an extended period of being overbought.
Weekly Strategy Video, Detailed Trading Plan, Charts