SP500 Futures Trading Plan for 4/30/24
Recap: In the plan, I was looking for resistance at 5154 and for the market to move below 5143-45 to enter short. We got this setup right at the open today and the entry signaling was excellent, so I took the short trade. When this began to move against me and was unable to derisk according to my methodology, I decided to cut the trade at a loss. Much of this session was balanced trade in a tight range but there was eventually continuation lower to targets at 5130 and 5124, and these supports held firm. As the market began to recover those supports and got back inside of the overnight range and morning low, I was able to scalp the move higher back to 5143-45 to make back earlier losses.
Balance/Trend: No change. Price remains trending higher in the medium and long term channels, but lower this month within the red channel. Today’s session closed higher and the market is on time framing higher now, though just for a couple of days in a row.
Analysis: The late dip and afternoon squeeze sent price a full 30+ points higher to close the session, again indicating that bulls are gaining some traction after bears failed to take price significantly lower from the red channel. After closing the week green last week, bulls will want to hold price above core resistances for more near term upside and eventually break price out from the red channel. This will be a busy week with major earnings and the FOMC meeting, and this could bring volatility to break price out in either direction.
Potential supports: 5132, 5124, 5105, 5099, 5091, 5071, 5054-56
Potential resistances: 5154, 5163, 5186-90, 5202-03, 5222, 5232, 5262
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